Today I presented to an audience of open source vendors at an event organised by technology trade association Intellect.

I had been asked to give a “media perspective” on open source – which I interpreted as giving a journalist's view of IT decision-makers’ perspective on the technology.

I suspect I might have been treading a bit of a fine line, since my presentation was not entirely positive about the state of open source use in enterprises.

I started off with a list of quotes taken from the reader comments section of an article about open source from The Register:

• “The primary reason I avoid Linux-based operating systems is the almost cult-like following.”
• The Linux guys truly don't get it. They just have no understanding of how the corporate IT machine works.” 
• Open source advocates don't have a clue about the bigger picture.”
• The fact of the matter is, Linux applications are for programmers, not users.”

And I added a quote from a very respected source, Freeform Dynamics director Dale Vile: “The fanatics and evangelists that push Linux in your face as the answer to everything actually put normal IT professionals off considering it”.

(Read the full list of comments through the link to the Reg story above and you’ll see how badly the open source advocates in the discussion make their argument.)

At this point I could sense some awkward shuffling of bums on seast among the 40-strong audience.

I went on to quote a Forrester Research study that suggested that more than 50 per cent of software development decision-makers in North America and Europe say they intend to decrease or remove their use of open source in the next 12 months, or are simply not interested in using it in the first place.

Whoops.

The research also showed that total cost of ownership – the single biggest part of the sales pitch for open source – is among the lowest concerns among firms that have chosen not to use open source. Security, service and support, and technical complexity were the big three worries. Given that the other main sales pitches for open source have typically been: no viruses; easy to use and support; reliable and simple to implement – it somewhat suggests that the open source community has rather misjudged its potential customers.

I also wasn't aware that there was a representative of the Open Source Consortium trade body in the audience, and I think he particularly squirmed when one of my slides said: "Open source on the desktop? Forget it..."

And yet…

Despite such apparent negativity, there are many open source success stories, of which I quoted:

• Firefox 24% browser market share;

• Apache 47% web server market share;

• Eclipse – the only open source product to genuinely change an entire market (sorry Borland);

• Linux de facto standard in supercomputers;

• Continuing Red Hat growth.

At this point some of the audience started to cheer up.

But the point I was trying to make is that the historical weakness of open source among IT decision-makers could be about to become its greatest opportunity.

It seems to me that much of the open source community has never quite grasped the fact that what IT managers actually buy is reduced risk. Cost and support and reliability are all important factors in that decision, of course, but ultimately IT buyers know that IT can be a risky thing, so they opt for the safer bet. Their two biggest daily priorities are to keep the lights on, and to not lose their job. Open source has never been able to convince them it is lower risk than proprietary alternatives. Hence it remains a niche technology among corporate IT departments.

But what has been open source’s most unique quality has been massively undersold, and is becoming especially relevant today.

The business world – and the public sector – are moving to a culture of openness and collaboration. The rise of social networking is a symptom of this trend. The open source community has been built around those two principles – and as such is in a great position to go to IT managers and say: “Hey, we understand what it means to build technology in an open and collaborative way – let us help you apply those concepts to your IT.” What could be lower risk than asking for help from a bunch of experts that has been doing this for years?

The barrier to greater corporate use of open source has always been that it is perceived as a technical solution for technical people – and the geeky, often defensive nature of many in the open source community has only reinforced that point, as Dale Vile pointed out.

IT managers care about what software goes into their desktops and datacentres. But as IT infrastructures move gradually into the cloud, the basis of decision is reversed – no IT manager will care at all about what software their cloud service provider uses behind the scenes, all that will matter is the service they receive.

And we are already seeing that trend in action – Linux plays a big part in the mega datacentres of Google and Amazon, on IBM mainframes, and no doubt increasingly will be used as new IT utility providers emerge offering cloud-based pay-as-you-go services to businesses.

In fact, what will reassure IT managers about a cloud provider will be the knowledge that it uses a technical solution approved by technical people.

Open source will, in my view, remain a niche product in the IT department. Its future lies in a re-think of its unique selling points and making the most of the emerging opportunity to become the technical backbone of a new generation of cloud services.