Microsoft and Yahoo: you decide
The rumours have finally abated, and what was perhaps the raging inevitability of a Microsoft bid for Yahoo is now a reality.
The software giant today offered nearly $45bn for its internet rival. It also emerged that Yahoo rejected an acquisition approach from Microsoft in February last year, believing that its 2007 turnaround plans and the development of its Project Panama search advertising platform would be the basis for the company’s revival.
But when Yahoo announced earlier this week that annual profit was down 12 per cent, Microsoft decided to strike.
Last year, Yahoo was able to convince shareholders that it had a plan in place to deliver the necessary improvement on its stock price. Just 12 months later, those shareholders may be harder to convince when faced with cashing in on a 62 per cent premium on the current share value for Yahoo.
So, chances are the shareholders will say yes. Certainly it would take a very long-term investor to think they are willing to wait for Yahoo shares to increase 62 per cent.
Then it will come down to the regulators. US and European competition authorities will undoubtedly want to examine the deal.
In the US, Google’s planned acquisition of online advertising firm DoubleClick was closely examined by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), before approving the deal in December last year. Microsoft will be heartened by that decision and will expect it to be seen as something of a precedent.
In Europe, the EU Competition Commission has a long and combative relationship with Microsoft over its dominant position in PC software. The commission has also taken a long, hard look at the DoubleClick acquisition, and many experts expect it to follow the FTC’s example.
So, as Microsoft will undoubtedly argue, if a merger between the world’s biggest pay-per-click internet advertiser and the one of the world’s leading online display advertising firms is acceptable, why would there be a problem with the number two and three search engines getting together?
All Microsoft’s official communications about the Yahoo proposal refer to a “dominant” online search advertising firm. Redmond will argue that combining with its rival will increase competition in the market by offering customers an alternative to Google that can match it more closely in user base and market share.
Google, however, is probably already telling regulators that in a market dominated by three companies, taking one of those out is to the detriment of competition. Remember that opposition to the DoubleClick deal in Europe was led by a Microsoft complaint to the EU. Google will seriously consider returning the compliment.
Microsoft will have a battle on its hands to see the acquisition through, but the deal makes sense all round.
So the fight for the online advertising dollar is well and truly underway. Internet ad spend last year was estimated at $40bn – forecasts suggest it will double to $80bn in 2010. Microsoft wants a bigger share of the pie, and the combination with Yahoo is the obvious way to achieve it.
The question marks that remain will be about how well two companies with very different development cultures can integrate. Yahoo and Microsoft have both been left in the lurch at times by the speed of new web trends and technologies – the success of Google Maps, for example. Will more programmers and more research and development cash be enough to close that innovation gap? It’s a hard task, but don’t bet against it.
But the acid test will be what you do – you, the internet user.
If you use Yahoo because you hate Microsoft, will you be driven into the arms of Google? Yahoo has a huge and loyal user base, every single one of whom is just a click away from becoming a Google customer instead.
When Ford bought Volvo, for example, Volvo drivers were unlikely to sell their cars in protest. But loyalty on the internet is a far more ephemeral thing.
We can expect to see Microsoft vs Google as the head-to-head for the internet era. But the winner will not be decided by advertisers, regulators or developers. It will be decided by you.



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